Spending rarely stays flat

A common planning simplification is constant inflation-adjusted spending for thirty years. Observed behaviour tends to look different.

Early retirement often carries elevated discretionary spending — travel, projects, family events that were deferred while working. Mid retirement frequently settles lower as the pace slows. Later years can rise again, driven mainly by health and care.

Modelling a flat line can therefore overstate spending in the middle and understate it at the end. The shape matters as much as the total.

Where household spending will actually land depends on preferences and health, which is why the phases are a framework for the conversation rather than a forecast.