Covering essentials first

Retirement spending is not one number. It is at least two: the spending that continues regardless of what markets do — housing, food, insurance, utilities, taxes — and the spending that is genuinely discretionary.

Separating them changes the question. Instead of asking whether a portfolio can support total spending, you can ask a narrower one: how much of the non-negotiable spending is already covered by income that arrives whether or not markets cooperate. Social Security, pensions and certain contractual income sources fall into that category.

The gap between essential spending and reliable income is the amount the portfolio must produce every year, in every market. That figure tends to be more informative than a withdrawal-rate percentage, because it is denominated in the thing that actually has to be paid.

This is a framing device, not a product recommendation. Different households close that gap in different ways, and what is appropriate depends on facts no article can know.